Ukrainian troops launched a surprise offensive on Aug. 6, crossing the Russian border into the Kursk region before expanding the campaign to the neighboring Belgorod region. It was Ukraine’s army’s most significant incursion into Russian territory since Putin’s full-scale invasion began in 2022.
However, Vladimir Putin is now suggesting this attack is a strategy on Ukraine’s part to strengthen its position for future negotiations. More troubling, he added: “But what kind of negotiations can we even talk about with people who indiscriminately attack civilians, or threaten our nuclear power plants?”
This outcome — this emotional leverage that Putin now owns — is exactly why counter-offensives are so dangerous. I, of course, don’t have all the answers; I have very little knowledge of the geographical, economic, and political realities on the ground in Russia and Ukraine, though you can learn more here:
On the Ground in Ukraine: A first-hand look at the realities of war
What I do know, however, is how I used to treat my little brother in the back seat of our mom’s car. I’m three years older than him, and therefore was much bigger and stronger when we were kids. And I knew that if I just started wailing on him, or if I simply ripped the Game Boy out of his hands, my mom would step in with force, punish me, and console my brother.
On the other hand, if I could provoke my brother just enough — if I could pester him just right to get him to overreact and throw a tantrum, my mom might be on my side.
Obviously, this is an oversimplification, and I fully recognize that Putin’s aggression over the past two and a half years has been anything but harmless.
Still, my hunch is that this tactic of provocation is what Putin has been pursuing all along. I think it’s what all terrorists — even going back to the ones behind 9/11 — have sought: to scare their victims. They want to get a rise out of those victims and shake them out of their resolve. That way, a further show of force can be justified and sold to the people of Russia as necessary.
So, now that Ukrainian forces have moved into Russia, I worry that Putin will be emboldened to unleash greater force than ever before.
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